NYC Marathon weather: 10 years of race days
Short answer: the NYC Marathon is usually a cool, dry race. In nine of the last 10, it was 45–58°F at 10 AM on Staten Island with a dew point of 53°F or lower. The exception was 2022, at 71°F and humid, which cost a 10:00/mi runner about 17–20 seconds per mile. Half the races had 10+ mph wind at the start.
The 2026 TCS New York City Marathon is Sunday, November 1. It starts at Fort Wadsworth on Staten Island, crosses all five boroughs and finishes in Central Park. Clocks fall back an hour that morning, so check your wave time against the new time.
This year's forecast #
National Weather Service hourly forecast, as of Thursday, October 29: 53°F with a dew point of 41°F and light wind at 9 AM at the Staten Island start, and 63°F, dew point 35°F, mostly sunny at 1 PM in Central Park. ArcPace scores the start 99 (Ideal) and 1 PM 89 (Great). At 10:00/mi neither hour costs any pace; the cool, dry air is worth about 8 seconds per mile. Forecasts change, so check again the night before.
Race-day weather, 2015–2025 #
| Race | 10 AM | Dew | Wind | Sky | 2 PM | Dew | Wind | Sky |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 46° | 37° | 1 mph | Cloudy | 57° | 39° | 4 mph | Sunny |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 45° | 27° | 10 mph | Sunny | 54° | 24° | 4 mph | Sunny |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 53° | 45° | 4 mph | Partly | 61° | 42° | 6 mph | Sunny |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 71° | 63° | 10 mph | Cloudy | 74° | 64° | 9 mph | Cloudy |
| Nov 7, 2021 | 46° | 40° | 5 mph | Partly | 53° | 35° | 4 mph | Cloudy |
| Nov 3, 2019 | 47° | 35° | 11 mph | Sunny | 52° | 32° | 11 mph | Cloudy |
| Nov 4, 2018 | 48° | 32° | 6 mph | Sunny | 52° | 35° | 2 mph | Sunny |
| Nov 5, 2017 | 58° | 53° | 10 mph | Cloudy | 61° | 56° | 11 mph | Cloudy |
| Nov 6, 2016 | 52° | 38° | 10 mph | Sunny | 54° | 33° | 11 mph | Partly |
| Nov 1, 2015 | 54° | 48° | 8 mph | Cloudy | 62° | 52° | 10 mph | Partly |
Reanalysis is modeled weather on a grid, not a station reading, so treat single values as close, not exact. The archive shows a trace of rain (0.1–0.2 mm) at 10 AM in 2015 and 2017 and none at the other hours. Central Park is about 13 miles from the start; its weather is similar but not identical.
What those days did to pace #
Three years through the ArcPace calculator at a 10:00/mi pace. Pace cost is the seconds per mile the weather adds against an ordinary mild day; negative means the weather helps.
- 2024, cool and dry: 91 (Great) at 10 AM and 99 (Ideal) at 2 PM. Pace cost −5 and −8 s/mi: the weather helped.
- 2017, mild and damp: 90 (Great) at 10 AM and 87 (Great) at 2 PM. Pace cost 0 and +3 s/mi.
- 2022, warm and humid: 70 (Good) at 10 AM and 67 (Good) at 2 PM, Yellow heat flag both hours. Pace cost +17 and +20 s/mi, about 8 minutes over 26.2 miles if it held all race.
Most years look like 2024 or 2017: weather that costs little or nothing. The dew point is what made 2022 different. How heat and humidity slow your pace.
Reading this year's forecast #
- Look at two hours: your wave's start and your expected finish. The last 10 races warmed 2–11°F between 10 AM and 2 PM.
- Dew point first. Under about 50°F is good racing air. In the high 50s or 60s, start slower than your goal.
- Wind: the start is exposed, and half the recent races had 10+ mph wind at 10 AM. Tuck into a group on the bridges.
- Sun: a sunny 2 PM finish feels warmer than the thermometer says. Wear a cap and sunglasses.
More on this in marathon race-day weather: how to read the forecast.
What to wear, by start temperature #
- 40s: light long sleeve or tee with arm warmers, shorts, cheap gloves. Old layers over your kit for the wait on Staten Island, dropped before the start.
- 50s: tee and shorts. A throwaway layer for the wait.
- 60s and up: singlet and split shorts, a cap, and a slower first half.
What to wear at each temperature · Running in the cold.
General guidance, not medical advice. On race day, follow the organizer's flag and instructions. For your own pace and wave, put the forecast for your start and finish hours into the running weather calculator.
Questions #
What is the usual weather for the NYC Marathon?
Cool and dry. In the last 10 races, 10 AM on Staten Island was 45–58°F in nine of them, with a dew point of 53°F or lower. By 2 PM it was 2–11°F warmer.
What was the warmest recent NYC Marathon?
2022: 71°F with a 63°F dew point at 10 AM, 74°F by 2 PM, under cloud. ArcPace scores those hours 70 and 67 (Good) with a Yellow heat flag, costing a 10:00/mi runner 17–20 seconds per mile.
When is the NYC Marathon forecast reliable?
The National Weather Service hourly forecast reaches race day about a week out. Plan on it from two or three days before, and check again the night before.
Do the clocks change on NYC Marathon morning?
Yes, in 2026. Daylight saving time ends at 2 AM on Sunday, November 1, so clocks fall back an hour on race morning. Check your wave time and transport against the new time.
Sources #
- Open-Meteo historical weather API (reanalysis), 40.60°N 74.09°W
- New York City Marathon race dates (Wikipedia)
- National Weather Service: hourly forecast by location
ArcPace scores every hour of your forecast 0–100, with the pace cost at your easy pace and what to wear. Free for iPhone. Get it on the App Store